The two-day national seminar on Understanding Electoral Outcomes in Indian States: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 was conducted by the Department of Political Science on 9th and 10th January, 2025 in the Department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad (UoH). The inaugural session of the seminar set the tone and tenor for the insightful discussions and academic engagement. Prof. Manjari Katju from the Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences delivered the welcome Address. She acknowledged the timely relevance of the seminar, coming just few months after the 2024 general elections, which provided a unique opportunity for analyzing the results. She emphasized on the value of electoral studies in gaining a deeper understanding of democracy in India, especially given its vast diversity. Prof. Katju also pointed to the growing consensus among researchers that India has entered an era of coalition politics, despite its often-perceived majoritarian nature. She expressed hope that the seminar would generate meaningful discussions, contributing to both academic and policy insights of Indian electoral dynamics.

Prof. E. Venkatesu, coordinator of the seminar, from the Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, UoH offered a brief introduction to the seminar. He traced the history of election and voting behavior studies, noting the interest in the fields intensified during the Second World War, which led to the development of survey research methodologies. He highlighted the pioneering role of the CSDS-Lokniti, established by Professor Rajni Kothari in the 1960s, in promoting survey-based electoral analysis in India. Prof. Venkatesu highlighted the importance of Lokniti contribution for understanding state-specific electoral trends in India.

The session was presided over by Prof. K.C. Suri, former Professor of Political Science, Social Sciences. at the University of Hyderabad. He highlighted the crucial role of election studies in understanding the evolving dynamics of Indian politics at the state level, while focusing on conceptual and methodological issues. Prof. Suri emphasized the decades-long academic dedication to studying electoral outcomes in Indian states, which have contributed significantly to global academic discourses. He discussed the importance of examining voter behavior, electoral trends, coalition politics, and the regionalization of electoral dynamics. According to Professor Suri, the study of elections helps to provide a perspective beyond emotional reactions, allowing scholars to analyze why things happen the way they do and contribute to the intellectual understanding of the electoral process.

Prof. Sanjay Kumar from CSDS-Lokniti, New Delhi, the Keynote Address, while over viewing the 2024 General Election trends focused on the socio-political factors that influenced voting behavior and the implications of the results. He noted the shifts in electoral trends, including the decline in the BJP seat count despite retaining a majority. He has attributed the trend to various factors such as the changing electoral mood during the campaign and the increasing focus on economic issues like inflation, unemployment etc. Prof. Kumar also highlighted the dis-aggregated nature of voting patterns, stressing the variations across states and communities. His keynote set the stage for more detailed discussions in the subsequent sessions in exploring more specific regional trends and the impact of multiple factors on the electoral outcomes.

The first paper of the first panel, ‘Redefining the binary politics: The 2024 General Elections and political Dynamics in Kerala’ was presented by Prof Sajad Ibrahim and Dr Nithya NR. The speakers addressed the Kerala Political landscape, which has been a place of power struggle between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). They explained the factors, which influenced changing voting behavior like emerging political forces and changing socioeconomic conditions. The paper examined the rise of new political narratives, and the increasing influence of national parties. The second paper titled ‘Understanding the dynamics of Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu: Reflecting LOK SABHA Elections 2024’ was presented by Dr Ramajayam. The speaker talked about different dimensions of Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu. In 2024 Elections, DMK vote share declined by 5% whereas BJP’s vote share increased to 11%. The speaker mentioned that in 2024 Rahul Gandhi has gained more popularity than Modi in Tamil Nadu. The Speaker pointed out a shift in upper caste votes from Congress to BJP, and preference for candidates over the Party.  Prof Sandeep Shastri, presented the paper titled ‘Karnataka: Coalition politics and its inherent contradictions in the Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections.’ He discussed different perspectives in Karnataka coalition politics.

The speaker of the second session, Prof. Yatindra Singh Sisodia, presented the paper titled “Madhya Pradesh Lok Sabha Election 2024: Unprecedented BJP Dominance”. In his presentation, he explained the key factor that led to the unprecedented BJP dominance in the Madhya Pradesh Lok Sabha election. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured all 29 seats in the state. Prof. Sanjay Lodha in his paper titled “Rajasthan: Analyzing the Congress Revival and Comprehending Future Challenges”, highlighted process of Congress could retain the power in Rajasthan. Prof. Sanjay Kumar presented on the Maharashtra state assembly and explained the surprising victory of Mahayauti from the analysis of the Lokniti CSDS survey. He introduced the two puzzles of the Maharashtra assembly election. First, the unprecedented victory of Mahayuti, and second, the electoral pattern that was not followed in Maharashtra. Ms. Jyoti Misra from CSDS-Lokniti, presented a paper on “Electoral Dynamics in Haryana: A Study of the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections.” In her presentation, Mishra analyzed Haryana unique electoral dynamics in 2024, where voters exhibited contrasting preferences in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Prof. Gyanaranjan Swain and Dr. Banita Mahanandia explained the Odisha Verdict in the 2024 elections”. The presentation shed light on some astonishing results at the 2024 elections that went in favor of BJP, which claimed the election by quite a margin that displaced Naveen Patnaik. Prof Ashutosh Kumar presented on “The 2024 Parliamentary Elections in Punjab: Continuity and Change”, which analyzed the state of an identity crisis with political ambiguity. Punjab shares some characteristics with other states, such as regional imbalances and caste equations. Still, it differs on issues that have deeper-rooted identity politics along the lines of religion, language, and cultural chauvinism.

On second day witnessed several exciting presentations and lively academic interactions. The panel of the Seminar had three presentations, by Prof E. Venkatesu, Prof H. Vagheeshan, and Dr. Vignesh Rajahmani, respectively, and was chaired by Prof G. Haragopal. The paper titled ‘The Era of Dominant Caste Dynastic Parties and Electoral Fray: The Success of TDP-BJP-JSP Coalition and Collapse of YSRCP in 2024’ was presented by Prof E Venkatesu. The speaker elaborated on the rise of dynastic regional parties. He said that it had weakened the caste-class politics and fragmentation of the linguistic identity. The paper explained role of families in dynastic parties hold over the political party by occupying political power for an extended period in the state. He observed that the populist activities like Padayatras also a dynastic one and the trend making elections a costly affair. ‘Parliament Election in 2024: Vanquishing of Regional Satrap BRS – A Sea Change in Telangana’, was presented by Dr H. Vagheeshan. He discussed the BRS perception of Parajya (Defeat) as a Parabhava (Disgrace). He said that the party has set aside the values of the movement after capturing power and neglected the key areas of human development in Telangana. Dr. Vignesh Rajahmani presented his paper titled ‘Resilient Ideologies Despite Fractured Votes: Problematising Tamil Nadu Results and Future Prospects.’ The speaker explored historical and ideological context and electoral shifts. Leadership structures, and emerging challenges of the 2024 Tamil Nadu elections.

Prof. E. Venkatesu and Mohammad Safvan presented on “Vote, seat share and social base of BJP in South India: A retrospective analysis of electoral performance.” The paper looked into the effort of BJP to penetrate into South India, which has always been difficult for the party due to the region’s cultural and linguistic diversity. Yet, in the 2024 elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 49 seats in South India, which is essential for forming the government for a third term at the national level. Prof. Afroz Alam spoke about “The Silent Power: Muslim Voters and the Shaping of Lok Sabha Elections 2024”. Prof Alam raised a critical discussion of the gradual erosion of Muslims political participation and representation. Over decades, the percentage success rate of Muslim candidates was 53 percent in 1952 and declined to only 9 percent in 2024 election.

Both presentations underscored the complexities of voter behavior and representation. While the BJP’s strategic success in South India reflects adaptability, the marginalization of Muslim voters highlights the need for inclusive governance to strengthen India’s democratic fabric.

In the final session Dr. Ajit Phadnis, presented on “Culture and Identity in India: Politics after 2024” Co-authored with Abhishek Priyadarshi, highlighting the concept of party differentiation in the election manifesto. He addressed the question, “Why does the manifesto matter?” by emphasizing political leaders’ narrative regarding the manifesto. The BJP manifesto, the Modi Ki Guarantee, and the Congress Manifesto, which was titled as Charter of Poor. Dr. G. Ajay, presented the field-based observation on Haryana election outcome. He highlighted BJP in Haryana effectively changed the dominant narrative about three prominent issues of the state – Agniver protest, Farmer protest, and wrestler protest as the dominant caste (Jat discontent), but not the discontent of people at large. Professor K. C Suri, presented on the renationalization of India’s party system. Renationalization means the regional party in India are becoming part of the national parties.

The valedictory session was presided over by Prof. Jyotirmaya Sharma, the Dean of School of Social Sciences. The research scholar, K. Ajith, presented the rapporteur’s report. Prof. E. Venkatesu classified the seminar proceedings of two day, broadly, into three categories such as national election 2024, state-specific analysis, and the thematic papers. The valedictory address was delivered by Prof. Sandeep Shastri, the Director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti. The important factors for the third term of NDA are the Modi leadership, the alliance politics, and different electoral strategies in different states. The seminar was concluded with a vote of thanks by Santhosh Kumar Panda, the research scholar in the Department of Political Science.

Report by Prof. Venkatesu, Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences and Coordinator of the Seminar